Why the OnLive service won’t kill PC games
So the big news this week at GDC has been the announcement of OnLive. I was pretty excited about OnLive when I first heard about it, but then I started thinking about how it would work. When you get down to the questions, the big one is how is this service actually going to be playable? The whole premise is that the OnLive servers handle all of the processing; this means that there will be lag not only in travel time to their servers and back, but there will be encoding issues as well (OnLive claims the video encoding only takes 1ms). All of that adds up to input lag and unless you are pretty close to their servers, it will be noticeable.
I would have to agree with Eurogamer says about the encoding that OnLive claims:
More than that, OnLive overlord Steve Perlmen has said that the latency introduced by the encoder is 1ms. Think about that; he's saying that the OnLive encoder runs at 1000fps. It's one of the most astonishing claims I've ever heard. It's like Ford saying that the new Fiesta's cruising speed is in excess of the speed of sound. To give some idea of the kind of leap OnLive reckons it is delivering, I consulted one of the world's leading specialists in high-end video encoding, and his response to OnLive's claims included such gems as "Bulls***" and "Hahahahaha!" along with a more measured, "I have the feeling that somebody is not telling the entire story here." This is a man whose know-how has helped YouTube make the jump to HD, and whose software is used in video compression applications around the world.
Then you have to consider the massive processing power that OnLive is going to have to have at each datacenter to play and encode the game. If OnLive's claim about the hardware they would need (and at a 1:1 ratio); just THINK of the power those datacenters will consume. OH yeah, and the costs that those high end computers is going to put a crimp on the budget. Then just multiply that by however many datacenters they have to put up to keep latency down: it becomes a nightmare.
I think that OnLive is a great idea; it's just that idea that their subscription based service is going to be cheaper than me building a $500 dollar gaming machine that does the same thing ( and without the input lag) seems off. I know this service is aimed more towards the casual gamers, but even so; it doesn't take much to build a decent rig anymore. The premise is cool, and it reminds me a lot of the Sega Channel, BUT I was pretty suspicious when OnLive was tossing buzzwords like "cloud computing" around. Marketing buzzwords tend to raise the bullshit meter.
I don't see OnLive killing off the PC or console market any time soon.
If you want to read the full article hit up Eurogamer to check it out ( and the cool videos). As always, if you think I'm wrong, or want to agree with me, you are welcome to leave a comment on this post, or in the Down to the Last Save forums.